Champions League scenarios: Here’s who can advance to knockout stage and what they need to do on Matchday 5

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With Matchday 5 in the books, 11 teams have booked their places in the last 16 of Champions League as spots in the last 16 are dwindling. Some of these are familiar faces but others are slightly unexpected. Porto, LiverpoolBayern Munich, real Madrid, Club Bruges, NaplesChelsea, Borussia Dortmund, PSG, Benficaand Manchester City have booked their places but what do other teams need to do to join them on Matchday 6?

First off, let’s take a look at tiebreakers if a team finishes level on points. Things are a little different than general league play. The first tiebreaker is the points in head-to-head matches between the tied teams. If the tied teams are still level in their points in head-to-head matches then it goes to the goal difference in head-to-head matches for the teams. Finally, the advantage would go to the team that has scored the most goals. An example is what we’ve seen from barcelona and Inter Milan. Inter beat Barca 1-0 at home and then drew 3-3 on the road, giving the Italian club four points head-to-head with Barca getting just one via the draw. That means if they finish level on points, Inter go through.

If multiple teams are tied after going through all of the prior tiebreakers then goal difference in all group matches comes into play. That’s followed by goals scored in all group stage matches, away goals scored in all group matches, wins in all group matches, and then away wins in all group matches. If that still doesn’t do it, we reach the disciplinary points for each team and the UEFA club coefficient.

So let’s look at who can get out of each group

Group A

  • Naples (15 points): Group winners.
  • Liverpool (12 points): Qualified for knockouts.
  • Ajax (three points): Can qualify for Europa League with a win or draw against Rangers.
  • Rangers (zero points): Can qualify for Europa League with w win by more than four goals against Ajax. If Rangers defeat Ajax 4-0, Ajax will advance by scoring eight goals in the competition (Rangers have scored one so a 4-0 victory would bring them to five).

Group B

  • Club Bruges (10 points): Qualified for knockouts. Can win the group with a win against Bayer Leverkusen or a Porto loss.
  • Porto (nine points): Qualified for knockouts. Can win the group with a win against Atlético Madrid and a draw or loss by Brugge or a Brugge loss and a draw against Atletico Madrid due to scoring more goals than Brugge.
  • Atlético Madrid (five points): Can qualify for Europa League by bettering Bayer Leverkusen’s result.
  • Bayer Leverkusen (five points): Can qualify for Europa League by bettering or matching Atletico Madrid’s result due to a better head to head record.

Group C

  • Bayern Munich (15 points): Group winners.
  • Inter Milan (10 points): Qualified for knockouts as the second-place team.
  • Barcelona (four points): Qualified for Europa League.
  • Victoria Plzen (zero points): Out of European competiton.

Group D

  • Tottenham (eight points): Into the next round with a win or a draw. If they lose, they’ll crash out of UCL but still have could qualify for Europa League.
  • Sporting CP (seven points): They will qualify for the next round with a win over Eintracht. A draw would also be enough as long as Marseille don’t beat Tottenham.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt (seven points): Can still win the group, but they have to win to qualify for the round of 16. Can qualify for Europa League with a Marseille loss.
  • Marseille (six points): If they win, they are into the round of 16. They have to beat Tottenham.

Group E

  • Chelsea (10 points): Group E winners due to superior head-to-head record versus AC Milan.
  • AC Milan (seven points): Can qualify for the knockout stages on Matchday 6 with a win or draw versus RB Salzburg. Have already qualified for at least a Europa League berth.
  • RB Salzburg (six points): Can qualify for knockouts with a victory over AC Milan. Will clinch a Europa League place with a draw or a Dinamo Zagreb loss.
  • Dinamo Zagreb (four points): Eliminated from contention for the knockout stages. Can qualify for at least Europa League with a victory over Chelsea and an RB Salzburg loss.

Group F

  • Real Madrid (10 points): Qualified for the knockouts. Can win the group with a win over Celtic or a loss by RB Leipzig.
  • RB Leipzig (nine points): Can qualify for knockouts with a victory or draw versus Shakhtar. Qualified for at least Europa League place.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk (six points): Can qualify for knockouts with a victory over RB Leipzig. Clinched at least a Europa League place.
  • Celtic (two points): Eliminated from qualifying for knockouts or Europa League.

Group G

  • Manchester City (11 points): Winners of Group G due to head-to-head over Dortmund.
  • Borussia Dortmund (eight points): Second place in Group G due to head-to-head advantage over Seville.
  • Sevilla (five points): Qualified for Europa League due to head-to-head advantage over Copenhagen.
  • Copenhagen (two points): Eliminated from contention for the knockout stages and Europa League.

Group H

  • PSG (eight points): Qualified for the knockout rounds. Can win the group by bettering Benfica’s result. If both teams finish level on points, it will go to the third tiebreaker of most goals scored in Champions League play. PSG have currently scored 14 goals.
  • Benfica (eight points): Qualified for the knockout rounds. Can win the group by bettering PSG’s result. If both teams finish level on points, it will go the third tiebreaker of most goals scored in Champions League play. Benfica have currently scored 10 goals.
  • Juventus (three points): Can’t qualify for the knockout stages. Can qualify for Europa League by bettering Maccabi Haifa’s result. If both teams finish level on points, it will go to the third tiebreaker of most goals scored in Champions League play. Juventus have scored eight goals.
  • Maccabi Haifa (three points): Can’t qualify for the knockout stages. Can qualify for Europa League by bettering Juventus’ result. If both teams finish level on points, it will go to the third tiebreaker of most goals scored in Champions League play. Maccabi Haifa have scored six goals.

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