Prediction market moves further toward Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio

Investors are saying yes to GOP incumbents.

Good news abounds for the re-election prospects of Florida’s most high-profile Republicans on this year’s ballot.

Gov. Ron DeSantis and US Sen. Marco Rubio both appear poised to cruise to re-election, assuming one prediction market’s action is a meaningful indicator.

PredictIt shows prohibitive leads for the incumbents over respective Democratic nominees, Charlie Crist and Val Demings.

This is the latest in a series of signs that the formerly “purple” Florida, which weathered three statewide recounts just four years ago, may no longer be a bellwether swing state.

The Oct. 24 and Oct. 25 daily spot prices in the gubernatorial market showed the price for a “Yes” share on DeSantis at 97 cents, a high-water mark. Crist’s most recent prices for “Yes” shares have hovered between 4 and 5 cents.

Even though she never launched a campaign for Governor, Demings’ “Yes” shares are still priced in that market at 1 cent, signifying the investor disrespect for Crist down the stretch.

DeSantis has been the strong favorite among PredictIt investors for months, but the erosion of any Crist market appears to be underway here.

A similar and marginally less dire scenario is unfolding in the Senate race, where investor enthusiasm for Demings never took off. A “Yes” share for the “Republican” proposition (which is Rubio) was priced at 94 cents, while a Democratic “Yes” share was priced at just 8 cents. The Republican position has likewise improved over time.

Polling has shown Republicans as favorites in both races.

The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Laboratory poll released Wednesday showed DeSantis routing Crist, 55% to 41%. overall, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows DeSantis up 9 points.

The UNF PORL poll also showed Rubio up by 11 points over Demings. That, again, is a bigger lead than the FiveThirtyEight average of 6 points.


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