The Greatest Housing Bubbles in America: Biggest Price Drops Since Housing Drop 1. Record Drop in Seattle (-3.9%), Close to Record in San Francisco (-4.3%) and Denver. Drops Spreading across the USA

Big drops in San Diego, Los Angeles, Dallas, Portland, Phoenix, Boston. Are prices falling faster than they are rising? Not possible. Error.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

This is the first month in this cycle, where the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Housing Price Index, which surpasses reality by 4-6 months, shows housing price declines in all metropolitan areas in the index.

In Seattle, the month-to-month decline was the steepest on record (-3.8%). In San Francisco, the monthly drop (-4.3%) was the third steepest on record, surpassed only by the two worst months during Housing Raid 1 in 2008. The declines in San Diego (-2.8%), Los Angeles (-2.3%), Phoenix (-2.1%) and other metropolitan areas were the worst since Housing Raid 1. And the falls are spreading across the country to other metropolitan areas, including Dallas, Boston, Washington DC and Las Vegas.

These are serious reductions for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, where each month is a rolling quarterly average that removes month-to-month variability.

Today’s announcement of the index was “August”, which consists of the quarterly average of closed home sales. entered the public records in June, July and August. Due to the delay between the conclusion of a deal and the public record of a “closed sale”, the timeframe for “August” roughly covers deals made in May-June. During this time, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached the 6% range. We’re at 7% today and mortgage bankers are exhausted.

Home prices in the San Francisco Bay Area fell 4.3 percent In “August” from July (three-month moving average June, July, and August), the third-largest drop on record was followed by two slightly steeper dips in 2008, during the depth of Housing Fall 1. The decline in August was the acceleration of the decreases in July (-3.5) and June (-1.3%).

The index fell 8.9% from its peak. During these three months, the index fell faster (-35 points) than prices rose in the last three months of the uptrend (+27 points). Are house prices falling faster than they skyrocket? No, it’s impossible. Error.

This turn of events has slashed annual gains to +5.6% from +24% earlier this year, easing only the final stages so far of the ludicrous rise of the past two years. The index is currently at its lowest level since January.

The Case Shiller Index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, which consists of nine counties: San Francisco is part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.

Home prices drop 3.9 percent in Seattle subway It’s the biggest monthly drop recorded in August, on top of a 3.1% drop in July and a 1.9% drop in June. The index fell 8.6% from its peak.

In the last three months of the spike, the index rose by 33 points; In the first three months of the decline, the index fell 36 points as San Francisco eased faster than its rise. The index is currently at its lowest level since January. Annual earnings fell to +9.9% from +27% earlier this year.

The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sold pairs” method, which compares sales in the month in which the same homes were previously sold. Price changes in each pair of sales are integrated into the metro index and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (methodology). By tracking the dollar exchange required to buy same The home index is a measure of home price inflation over time.

Home prices fell 2.8 percent in the San Diego subway In August, the biggest monthly drop since Housing Fall 1 after a 2.5% drop in July, and a 0.7% drop in June hit its lowest level since January.

The index fell 5.9% from its peak and opened at a symmetrical pace in the last three months of the rise. This brought annual earnings to 12.7% from 29% earlier this year.

The current index value of 403 for San Diego means that home prices have increased 303% since January 2000, when the index was set to 100. Based on growth since 2000, San Diego was formerly the #1 Most Magnificent Housing Bubble. America has only now fallen below Miami (+309%) and Los Angeles (+305%).

Home prices in the Los Angeles subway fell 2.3 percent After falling 1.6% in July and 0.4% in June, Housing Fall is the steepest drop since 1 . This reduced the year-over-year price increase from +23% a few months ago to +12.1%. The index is down 4.3% from its peak.

Home prices fell 2.3 percent on the Denver subway It’s the second biggest drop since January 2009, after a 1.4% drop in July and a 0.1% drop in June.

The index fell 3.7% from its peak, halving annual earnings to 12.0%.

Home prices drop 1.9 percent in Portland subway After a ludicrous rise in August, after a 1.1% drop in July and a 0.1% drop in June.

The index fell 3.1% from its peak, bringing annual gains to +8.6% from +19% earlier this year.

On the Dallas subway:

  • Month-to-month: -2.3% after -0.4% drop in July.
  • Year-over-year: Decreased from +30% earlier this year to +20.2%.
  • From the top: -2.3%.

on the Phoenix subway:

  • Month to month: -2.1% after -0.2% in July.
  • Year-over-year: From +32% earlier this year to +17.1%.
  • From the top: -2.3%.


in the Washington DC subway:

  • Month to month: -15% after 0.7% drop in July.
  • Year-over-year: From +13% earlier this year to +7.4%.
  • From the top: -2.2%.

in the Boston subway:

  • Month to month: -1.2% after -0.3% in July.
  • Year-over-year: 11.4%, up from +15% earlier this year.
  • From the top: -1.5%.

Las Vegas subway:

  • Month to month: -1.3% from the record in July.
  • Year-over-year: Decreased from +28% earlier this year to +17.5%.
  • From the top: -1.3%.

Tampa Subway:

  • Month to month: -0.5% from record in July
  • Year-over-year: +28.0% from +36% earlier this year
  • From the top: -0.5%

Miami Subway:

  • Month to month: -0.1% from the record in July.
  • Year-over-year: Decreased from +34% earlier this year to +28.6%.
  • From the top: -0.1%.

on the New York subway:

  • Month to month: -0.5% from record in July
  • Year-over-year: +12.3% from +15% earlier this year
  • From the top: -0.5%

The New York subway has experienced 175% home price inflation since January 2000, based on the Case-Shiller Index value of 275. Cities that remained in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland) experienced less home price inflation and failed to make it to this glorious list of the most spectacular housing bubbles. But they all fell month-to-month in August.

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