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The World Series begins this Friday, and the starting pitching matchup has been announced. Aaron Nola will start for the visiting Philadelphia Phillies against Houston’s Justin Verlander. Both pitchers have performed extremely well all season, but Houston is favored to take Game 1.
Our experts have a World Series Game 1 prediction with odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook, so let’s dive into their analysis.
|Betting Market||Best bet for Friday, 10/28|
|Money line prediction||Astros ML (-170)|
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World Series Game 1 prediction featuring Astros ML (-170 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Welcome to the 2022 World Series between the National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies and the American League Champion Houston Astros. The fact that the Astros won the American League wasn’t the biggest surprise because only the Yankees appeared to be a threat, but they swept New York in four games in the ALCS. The fact that the Phillies, not the Dodgers or Braves, are the National League Champions is a surprise. In Game 1 of the World Series, Aaron Nola of the Phillies will start against Justin Verlander of the Astros.
Up until the NLDS, Nola had a strong playoff performance. He pitched 12.2 innings against the Cardinals and Braves without allowing a run while surrendering just nine hits in his first two outings. But a disappointing performance in San Diego spoiled his perfect postseason run as the Padres tagged him for six earned runs and homered twice.
Verlander’s postseason started poorly as the Mariners beat him in Game 1 of the ALDS. However, we believe that Verlander’s lengthy rest period prior to that start contributed to some of that, and it was clear that he was eager to get back on the mound after the poor performance in the ALDS.
Verlander was in ace form against the Yankees, finishing with three hits allowed and 11 strikeouts in six innings. Like Nola, who made his final regular-season start against the Astros, Verlander finished his Cy Young season against the Phillies. After 5.0 innings, he had a no-hitter and 10 strikeouts until Dusty Baker removed him since the Astros were up 8-0.
The Astros should win at home on Friday, and our World Series Game 1 prediction is on Houston’s money line, and you can fade or follow this selection at Caesars Sportsbook.
2022 World Series Game 1 free best bet from our experts
Throughout their careers, Nola and Verlander have both pitched extremely well against opposing lineups. Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos make up the core of Philadelphia’s offense and are a combined 3-for-15 against Justin Verlander.
Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are a combined 3-for-14 against Nola, which is almost identical to the Philadelphia lineup. It is highly likely that neither starter will go through the third round of the order or even make it through six innings because it is the World Series, and there is no room for error.
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With their bullpens having rested for almost a week, both managers will be eager to employ them. With a 0.82 ERA and a .127 BAA in the postseason, the Houston arm barn has been one of the best collections of relievers baseball has seen in recent years.
In the regular season, Philadelphia’s bullpen was their weakest link, but in the postseason, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez have excelled, helping their bullpen to post a 3.11 ERA and a .211 BAA. The under is also a solid choice in Game 1.
How to bet on Astros ML at Caesars Sportsbook
If you want to bet on our experts’ World Series Game 1 prediction, click here to sign up for an account at Caesars Sportsbook. You’ll automatically claim first-bet insurance worth up to $1,250, so you can bet on the money line or game total in Friday’s matchup without worrying about the outcome.
Whether you’re betting on our experts’ Phillies vs. Astros money line prediction or a different Game 1 selection, don’t forget to register for a Caesars Sportsbook account before the first pitch Friday night.
Justin Verlander player props and odds for Game 1 of the 2022 World Series
An opposing starter has recorded seven or more strikeouts only once against the Phillies in their 11 games this postseason. Only Yu Darvish in the NLDS was able to reach this mark, and it’s because of his variety of pitches. However, Verlander relies on a fastball and slider for the majority of his pitches, so the Phillies should be able to guess which pitch is coming.
Caesars Sportsbook offers props related to Verlander, and his total (over/under) strikeouts is 5.5. The over is heavily juiced to -164, while the under has +111 odds. We don’t have an official play, but we’d lean towards backing the under because Darvish has been the only pitcher to consistently strike out the Phillies.
Houston is the favorite to win Game 1 at -170 odds, while Philadelphia is a +143 underdog at Caesars. That means a $170 bet on the Astros to win Game 1 would profit $100, while a $100 bet on the Phillies to complete the upset would win $143. The game total (over/under) is 6.5 runs; the under has +105 odds, while the over is favored at a -125 price.
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